Trust Alexandrova’s Power Game in the Netherlands (June 12)

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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova Odds

Sabalenka Odds -148
Alexandrova Odds +115
More less 21.5
Time 6 a.m. ET
Odds via PointsBet. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.

World number 6 Aryna Sabalenka continued her good grass form in the semi-final at ‘s-Hertoegenbosch. Sabalenka beat Shelby Rogers 7-6(8), 6-0, saving a set point in the first set.

But Sabalenka will face her toughest test in the final, where Ekaterina Alexandrova awaits.

Sabalenka revitalized on the grass

Sabalenka has won eight of the nine grass-court sets she has contested this week at ‘s-Hertogenbosch, with the change of surface revitalizing the Belarusian’s season.

Against Rogers, Sabalenka won 50% of his return points, including 57% on Rogers’ first serve. This allowed Sabalenka to break serve five times with her punishing groundstrokes.

And while Sabalenka’s overall service numbers weren’t great – winning 61% of her service points – she was only broken twice and handled her serve well. In the second set, Sabalenka’s serve was really rolling, winning 75% of her first serves and not breaking at all.

The Belarusian is a good player on grass, with a professional record of 27-14 on the surface. Moreover, Sabalenka was one set away from the Wimbledon final last season, losing to Karolina Pliskova 7-5, 4-6, 4-6 in that semi-final.

Sabalenka’s hyper-aggressive game works well on grass. She has a huge serve and takes every opportunity to be aggressive. That includes on the return, as she hit Rogers’ first serve today and immediately put the American on the defensive.

While Sabalenka’s rally tolerance isn’t a strength, the fast grass pitches help mitigate that weakness and play to Sabalenka’s game strengths.

Sabalenka is also a good net player, winning at least 55% of her net in five out of six matches at Wimbledon last season. She also has two double Slam titles.

Alexandrova in great shape

Alexandrova also played excellent lawn tennis this week. She’s lost 11 games in her last three games, an incredible feat given the boost the servers get on the grass.

In the semifinals, Alexandrova beat Veronika Kudermetova 6-3, 6-1. Alexandrova was dominant on her first serve, winning 80% of her first-serve points and getting broken just once the entire game.

It was the third game in a row that Alexandrova had won at least 80% of her first serves, and she was only broken once during that streak.

On the return, Alexandrova put enormous pressure on Kudermetova. Alexandrova won 53% of her return points, including 58% on Kudermetova’s second serve. This allowed Alexandrova to break serve five times and tear through Kudermetova’s defenses.

Alexandrova is now 21-13 in her career on grass, with the surface playing to Alexandrova’s strengths. Alexandrova has a powerful, well-placed first serve and plays with excellent controlled aggression from the baseline, including on the return.

When Alexandrova hits the ball so cleanly and with this level of precision, it’s hard to find an area to exploit in her game.

One thing to keep in mind, however, is that Alexandrova only made 51% of her first serves against Kudermetova, by far the lowest in the tournament for her.

If Alexandrova wants to beat Sabalenka in the final, she needs to increase that first-serve percentage.

bet value

This is a riveting showdown between two huge ball forwards whose plays are built for the grass and are in great form.

Sabalenka has more pedigree on grass than Alexandrova with her performance at Wimbledon last season, but Alexandrova is playing better tennis this week. The Russian’s first serve is shooting at an incredibly high level and she is barely losing service games this week.

While Sabalenka has a big serve herself, she has been erratic off the baseline more often this week than Alexandrova.

Whether it was in the first set against Kateryna Baindl, throughout the match against Alison Van Uytvanck and even in the first set against Rogers, there were many times in Sabalenka’s matches this week where she lost reach on his groundstrokes.

An opponent like Alexandrova might have a better chance of being able to take advantage of these dips compared to Sabalenka’s previous opponents.

In the end, in a tight game between two big servers, Alexandrova even getting 2.5 games is huge. It also doesn’t hurt that she played at a higher level this week.

Take: Alexandrova +2.5 games (-121)

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